Forecasting models are a valuable tool for agronomic management.

The affirmation of a greater environmental awareness and attention to human health by both consumers and producers, together with farmers’ awareness of the economic costs of treatments, has led to the spread of integrated and organic agriculture.

They are regulated by regional Integrated Production Regulations and by various European, national and regional regulations.

This change has led to a reduction in the environmental impact also in conventional agriculture, which is reflected in the careful use of the main crop inputs: water, fertilizers and products for defense against pests and diseases.

Modern crop management strategies aim to optimize the use of inputs, preferring, when possible, non-chemical ones.

The objective is to:

1. reduce crop management costs,
2. increase product quality,
3. safeguard the animal and plant species present in the agroecosystem.

It is therefore important to choose the appropriate management techniques, determine the doses of inputs necessary for the crop, and above all the most appropriate times for administration.

Plant diseases can be prevented or limited in their harmful effects with different techniques such as agronomic interventions, removal of plant parts affected by the disease, pheromone traps, biological control systems, use of pesticides. Correct fertilization is also important to increase the physical-chemical fertility of the soil; as is adjusting irrigation to the crop and the specific situation.

To implement effective strategies, continuous quantitative monitoring is necessary, which allows to have updated data on the presence of infestation outbreaks, on the phenological stage of crops, on their nutritional or water stress.

All this involves intensive field investigations, laboratory analysis, and considerable scientific knowledge for the interpretation of observations: methods that are not very timely and very expensive.

Forecast models provide the agricultural entrepreneur with tools capable of reading and processing environmental data (weather conditions, characteristics and specific aspects of crops). In this way, early quantitative information on crop conditions is easily obtained to implement effective, efficient and targeted interventions.

In addition to weather forecasts, which are widely used, forecast models developed specifically for the agricultural sector provide useful information to support decisions such as:

• crop phenology (crop development stage or fruit ripening stage)
• risk of infestation by specific pathogens or phytophages at each stage of the crop cycle
• nutritional needs of crops
• water needs of crops

This information is highly accurate, easy to read by operators, and allows for remote control of data that is difficult to find but essential for decision-making.

Forecast models provide valuable support to those working in agriculture. They are a very important element of the entire DSS (Decision Support System), simplify work and increase the effectiveness of decisions in the field of plant protection, irrigation management and fertilization.

A valuable tool for technicians and farmers, who will be able to evaluate the most appropriate defense strategy based on the technical, social and economic characteristics of the company.

Agricolus provides forecast models for phenology, irrigation and fertilization for all crops and specific defense models for the following:

All models are based on meteorological information from field stations and adapt to different contexts through the inclusion of particular crop operations or phenological observations.